2000 President · national
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 1,200 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 42%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%
D+0.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.492) = 2.508
- Absolute miss = |2.508| = 2.508
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6399, race ID 40 (538 database).