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2010 House · HI-1

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-05-20 (2 days before the election) · 1,082 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 17.67% · Republican 35.78%

R+18.1

The certified result

Democrat 30.99% · Republican 39.68%

R+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 17.67 − 35.78 = -18.11
  2. Actual margin = 30.988 − 39.679 = -8.691
  3. Signed miss = -18.11 − (-8.691) = -9.420
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.420| = 9.420

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63992, race ID 1797 (538 database).