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2010 House · NC-11

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 2,848 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40.4% · Republican 39.9%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 54.34% · Republican 45.66%

D+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.4 − 39.9 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 54.344 − 45.656 = 8.688
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (8.688) = -8.188
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.188| = 8.188

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63997, race ID 4759 (538 database).