Skip to content

2008 House · UT-1

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 377 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 60%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.47% · Republican 64.86%

R+34.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 60 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.473 − 64.855 = -34.382
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-34.382) = 1.382
  4. Absolute miss = |1.382| = 1.382

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64014, race ID 4425 (538 database).