Skip to content

2008 House · UT-3

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 383 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 58%

R+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.28% · Republican 65.61%

R+37.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 58 = -34.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.283 − 65.610 = -37.327
  3. Signed miss = -34.00 − (-37.327) = 3.327
  4. Absolute miss = |3.327| = 3.327

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64014, race ID 4427 (538 database).