2006 Senate · DE
Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 26%
D+34.0
The certified result
Democrat 70.20% · Republican 28.70%
D+41.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 26 = 34.00
- Actual margin = 70.200 − 28.700 = 41.500
- Signed miss = 34.00 − (41.500) = -7.500
- Absolute miss = |-7.500| = 7.500
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64035, race ID 1584 (538 database).