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2006 House · DE-1

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 59%

R+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.76% · Republican 57.17%

R+18.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 59 = -35.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.763 − 57.171 = -18.408
  3. Signed miss = -35.00 − (-18.408) = -16.592
  4. Absolute miss = |-16.592| = 16.592

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64035, race ID 3675 (538 database).