2006 House · PA-10
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 326 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 38%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.90% · Republican 47.01%
D+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 52.896 − 47.010 = 5.886
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (5.886) = 6.114
- Absolute miss = |6.114| = 6.114
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64046, race ID 3930 (538 database).