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2006 House · PA-8

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 41%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.30% · Republican 49.69%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.299 − 49.692 = 0.607
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.607) = 4.392
  4. Absolute miss = |4.392| = 4.392

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64055, race ID 3928 (538 database).