2010 House · PA-12
Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2010-04-28 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 36%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.64% · Republican 44.99%
D+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 36 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 52.641 − 44.990 = 7.651
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.651) = 0.349
- Absolute miss = |0.349| = 0.349
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64057, race ID 1798 (538 database).