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2011 House · NY-26

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2011-05-03 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 31%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.68% · Republican 32.08%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 31 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.680 − 32.083 = 10.597
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (10.597) = -11.597
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.597| = 11.597

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64059, race ID 1793 (538 database).