2011 House · NY-9
Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2011-08-30 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 39%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.92% · Republican 45.67%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 39 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 43.924 − 45.666 = -1.742
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (-1.742) = 9.742
- Absolute miss = |9.742| = 9.742
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64062, race ID 1790 (538 database).