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2006 House · OH-1

Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 40%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.75% · Republican 52.25%

R+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.751 − 52.249 = -4.498
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (-4.498) = 13.497
  4. Absolute miss = |13.497| = 13.497

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64079, race ID 3893 (538 database).