2008 House · NJ-3
Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2008-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 35%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.08% · Republican 47.92%
D+4.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 35 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 52.076 − 47.924 = 4.152
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.152) = 3.847
- Absolute miss = |3.847| = 3.847
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64083, race ID 4271 (538 database).