2002 House · IN-7
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 42%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.13% · Republican 44.14%
D+9.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 53.125 − 44.144 = 8.981
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (8.981) = -7.982
- Absolute miss = |-7.982| = 7.982
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64120, race ID 2870 (538 database).