1998 House · CT-1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 308 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 21%
D+34.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.05% · Republican 41.40%
D+16.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 21 = 34.00
- Actual margin = 58.052 − 41.404 = 16.648
- Signed miss = 34.00 − (16.648) = 17.352
- Absolute miss = |17.352| = 17.352
The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64122, race ID 1923 (538 database).