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1998 House · NM-3

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 418 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.16% · Republican 43.27%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.160 − 43.266 = 9.894
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (9.894) = -6.893
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.893| = 6.893

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64124, race ID 2101 (538 database).