2000 House · CT-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 410 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 43%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.37% · Republican 48.80%
D+0.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.367 − 48.800 = 0.567
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.567) = 0.433
- Absolute miss = |0.433| = 0.433
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64126, race ID 2359 (538 database).