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2006 Senate · UT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 61%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.07% · Republican 62.36%

R+31.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 61 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.065 − 62.361 = -31.296
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-31.296) = 1.296
  4. Absolute miss = |1.296| = 1.296

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64131, race ID 1607 (538 database).