2006 House · UT-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 209 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 29%
D+33.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.00% · Republican 37.30%
D+21.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 29 = 33.00
- Actual margin = 58.999 − 37.302 = 21.697
- Signed miss = 33.00 − (21.697) = 11.302
- Absolute miss = |11.302| = 11.302
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64131, race ID 3991 (538 database).