2008 House · LA-6
McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2008-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 36%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.29% · Republican 48.12%
R+7.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 36 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 40.294 − 48.119 = -7.825
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-7.825) = 9.825
- Absolute miss = |9.825| = 9.825
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64142, race ID 4202 (538 database).