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2011 House · NY-9

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2011-08-31 (13 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 42%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 45.67%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 42 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.924 − 45.666 = -1.742
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.742) = 1.742
  4. Absolute miss = |1.742| = 1.742

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64143, race ID 1790 (538 database).