2006 House · GA-8
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 34%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.55% · Republican 49.45%
D+1.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 34 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 50.549 − 49.451 = 1.098
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (1.098) = 14.902
- Absolute miss = |14.902| = 14.902
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64144, race ID 3708 (538 database).