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2006 House · PA-8

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 421 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.30% · Republican 49.69%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.299 − 49.692 = 0.607
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.607) = -5.608
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.608| = 5.608

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64158, race ID 3928 (538 database).