2006 House · NE-3
PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 40%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.01% · Republican 54.99%
R+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 40 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 45.008 − 54.992 = -9.984
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-9.984) = 15.984
- Absolute miss = |15.984| = 15.984
The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64169, race ID 3828 (538 database).