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2006 House · NM-1

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.80% · Republican 50.20%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.796 − 50.204 = -0.408
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.408) = 3.408
  4. Absolute miss = |3.408| = 3.408

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64175, race ID 3847 (538 database).