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2006 House · FL-13

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 44%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.92% · Republican 50.08%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 44 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.923 − 50.077 = -0.154
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-0.154) = -2.845
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.845| = 2.845

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64178, race ID 3688 (538 database).