2010 House · PA-12
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-05-04 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 43%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.64% · Republican 44.99%
D+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 43 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 52.641 − 44.990 = 7.651
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (7.651) = -9.651
- Absolute miss = |-9.651| = 9.651
The poll overstated the Republican by 9.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64181, race ID 1798 (538 database).