Skip to content

2010 House · PA-12

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-05-15 (3 days before the election) · 831 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.64% · Republican 44.99%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.641 − 44.990 = 7.651
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (7.651) = -8.651
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.651| = 8.651

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64184, race ID 1798 (538 database).