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2011 House · CA-36

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2011-07-09 (3 days before the election) · 619 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 44%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.89% · Republican 45.11%

D+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.891 − 45.109 = 9.782
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (9.782) = -1.782
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.782| = 1.782

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64187, race ID 1792 (538 database).