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2011 House · NV-2

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2011-09-10 (3 days before the election) · 629 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 50%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.07% · Republican 57.92%

R+21.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 50 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.072 − 57.924 = -21.852
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-21.852) = 8.852
  4. Absolute miss = |8.852| = 8.852

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64189, race ID 1791 (538 database).