2006 House · NM-1
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2006-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 168 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 42%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.80% · Republican 50.20%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.796 − 50.204 = -0.408
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.408) = 3.408
- Absolute miss = |3.408| = 3.408
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64196, race ID 3847 (538 database).