2006 Senate · NM
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 65% · Republican 23%
D+42.0
The certified result
Democrat 70.61% · Republican 29.33%
D+41.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 65 − 23 = 42.00
- Actual margin = 70.605 − 29.331 = 41.274
- Signed miss = 42.00 − (41.274) = 0.725
- Absolute miss = |0.725| = 0.725
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64197, race ID 1599 (538 database).