2006 House · NM-1
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 45%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.80% · Republican 50.20%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.796 − 50.204 = -0.408
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.408) = 4.408
- Absolute miss = |4.408| = 4.408
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64197, race ID 3847 (538 database).