2006 House · NM-2
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 168 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 59%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.49% · Republican 59.42%
R+18.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 59 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 40.494 − 59.420 = -18.926
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-18.926) = -7.074
- Absolute miss = |-7.074| = 7.074
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64197, race ID 3848 (538 database).