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2000 House · IL-10

Richard Day Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 305 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 45%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 51.19%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 45 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.809 − 51.191 = -2.382
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-2.382) = -7.618
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.618| = 7.618

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64223, race ID 2412 (538 database).