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2006 House · IL-6

Richard Day Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.65% · Republican 51.35%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.648 − 51.351 = -2.703
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.703) = -1.297
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.297| = 1.297

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64224, race ID 3723 (538 database).