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2006 House · CA-4

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 954 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.87% · Republican 49.05%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.866 − 49.051 = -3.185
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.185) = 0.185
  4. Absolute miss = |0.185| = 0.185

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64230, race ID 3613 (538 database).