2006 House · CA-11
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 983 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.27% · Republican 46.73%
D+6.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 53.266 − 46.734 = 6.532
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (6.532) = -4.531
- Absolute miss = |-4.531| = 4.531
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64230, race ID 3620 (538 database).