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2006 House · CT-2

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 947 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.02% · Republican 49.98%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.017 − 49.983 = 0.034
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.034) = 5.966
  4. Absolute miss = |5.966| = 5.966

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64232, race ID 3671 (538 database).