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2006 House · CT-4

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 976 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.58% · Republican 50.96%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.579 − 50.957 = -3.378
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-3.378) = -5.622
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.622| = 5.622

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64232, race ID 3673 (538 database).