2006 House · FL-13
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,005 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.92% · Republican 50.08%
R+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.923 − 50.077 = -0.154
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.154) = 2.155
- Absolute miss = |2.155| = 2.155
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64233, race ID 3688 (538 database).