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2006 House · FL-22

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 961 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.88% · Republican 47.13%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.883 − 47.126 = 3.757
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.757) = -1.757
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.757| = 1.757

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64233, race ID 3697 (538 database).