2006 House · IL-10
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,008 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.62% · Republican 53.38%
R+6.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 46.624 − 53.375 = -6.751
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-6.751) = 8.751
- Absolute miss = |8.751| = 8.751
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64234, race ID 3727 (538 database).