2006 House · KY-3
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 46%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 48.18%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 50.623 − 48.176 = 2.447
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.447) = 3.553
- Absolute miss = |3.553| = 3.553
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64236, race ID 3757 (538 database).