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2006 House · KY-4

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 996 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.38% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.377 − 51.690 = -8.313
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-8.313) = 12.313
  4. Absolute miss = |12.313| = 12.313

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64236, race ID 3758 (538 database).