2006 House · NV-3
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,031 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 51%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.46%
R+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 46.574 − 48.456 = -1.882
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-1.882) = -5.118
- Absolute miss = |-5.118| = 5.118
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64238, race ID 3831 (538 database).