2006 House · NJ-7
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,013 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 46%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.43%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.428 = -1.479
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.479) = -1.521
- Absolute miss = |-1.521| = 1.521
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64240, race ID 3840 (538 database).