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2006 House · NY-3

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 982 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.48% · Republican 45.05%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.482 − 45.054 = -5.572
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.572) = -1.428
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.428| = 1.428

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64241, race ID 3852 (538 database).