2006 House · NY-20
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,040 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 42%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.51% · Republican 37.59%
D+8.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 46.510 − 37.592 = 8.918
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (8.918) = 2.082
- Absolute miss = |2.082| = 2.082
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64241, race ID 3869 (538 database).